The initial exit polls from France have confirmed a widely anticipated outcome. Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) has taken the lead with 34%, followed by the left-wing coalition New Popular Front (NFP), at 28.1%, and Emmanuel Macron’s centrist party in third, albeit not entirely without support, at 20.3%.
Additionally, early estimates suggest a voter turnout ranging from 65.5% to 69.7%, a notable increase from the 47.7% in the 2022 first-round vote.
Key takeaways
Three primary conclusions can be drawn from the current data. Firstly, should NFP and Macron’s party form an alliance for the second round of voting next Sunday, they could effectively block far-right candidates, preventing many from securing seats in the National Assembly.
The high voter turnout also provides two important insights. Firstly, it indicates a mobilisation of democratic voters in France.
Secondly, due to the intricacies of the French electoral system, many of the 577 constituencies will see three candidates progressing to the second round, resulting in what the French call ‘triangular’ contests on the upcoming Sunday.
It’s important to note that the exit polls released thus far pertain to smaller towns and cities, where voting closed one or two hours earlier than in larger urban centres. Typically, these initial polls provide a reasonably accurate snapshot, with more comprehensive exit polls expected later.
On the matter of seat distribution, the French electoral system’s complexity, particularly with the second round being contested in 577 individual electoral battles, makes it challenging to predict the precise number of seats each party will secure in the National Assembly.
Macron’s pivotal role
However, if the exit polls prove accurate, it is safe to say that President Macron’s actions will be pivotal.
The key question is whether he will encourage his supporters to back the NFP candidates or if he will divide the ‘democratic front’ that unites all other parties against the far-right when they threaten to seize power.
President Macron has called for a ‘grand coalition of democratic forces’, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of La France Insoumise, one of the four parties in the NFP coalition, has urged their candidates who came third to graciously stand aside in favour of the remaining democratic candidate.
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