Ursula von der Leyen is still the front-runner to lead the powerful European Commission for a second term, but her chances of winning will probably be hampered by the emergence of nationalist groups that are euro-sceptic in the 2024 European election.
A “qualified majority” of the 27 presidents of the European Union as well as a majority in the 720-seat European Parliament are required for von der Leyen to be re-elected to another five years as head of the EU’s executive arm.
With just nine votes more than necessary, she narrowly avoided defeat in the 2019 vote even though her center-right European People’s Party (EPP) was the largest party in the legislature. The second-largest party, the Socialists, and the third-largest party, the Liberals, supported her as well.
The EPP is still the largest party in parliament, and preliminary seat forecasts indicated that she could have more than the necessary 361 votes if the center-left, liberals, and Greens all support her.
However, the far-right German AfD and nationalist and euro-sceptic political parties would together scoop up 22 deputies, bringing their total to 149. Depending on how many of the 102 currently unaffiliated MPs choose to formally join one of the parliamentary groupings that are opposed, their gains might be substantially greater.
Von der Leyen would have even less chance of winning as a result, especially as it is unclear how many members of her possible alliance may abstain from voting for her even if their party leaders endorse her.
In 2019, von der Leyen received the necessary votes from right-wing Polish lawmakers, despite the opposition of almost 100 MEPs from the EPP, center-left, and liberal alliance. These are unlikely to back her today, particularly given that she was adamant about upholding the rule of law and contributed to the passage of the EU’s Green Deal.
Von der Leyen has been indicating her willingness to work with the European Conservatives and Reformists Party (ECR), which unites parties that are euro-sceptic, such as Brothers of Italy, Spain’s Vox, and Law and Justice of Poland, on significant topics in order to secure support in parliament.
Given that the Commission is responsible for drafting the law, diplomats fear this could further tilt EU policymaking to the right during the proposal stage.
However, by making overtures to the ECR, von der Leyen runs the risk of alienating her traditional supporters, the Socialists, Liberals, and Greens having all declared that they would not back her should she align herself with the right.
(Source: Reuters)
